By Dean Sprague
It’s always fun to read what the collector car gurus are predicting about the future of this hobby. Hemmings and Hagerty among others take a swing at it every year. When the dust settles at the end of that year they are usually pretty close. Most agree that contemporary performance cars will enjoy increases in power but sadly most will not have a manual transmission option. Also this is a milestone year for Chevrolet with the introduction of the first mid-engine Corvette. I personally have been waiting over a decade for this having owned a C3, C5s and C6s. When the C7 was introduced I decided to wait for the promised yet again mid-engine car. Now that it’s actually here and better than I ever imagined maybe in a year or two with my wife’s permission (assent) assuming I still have the ability to drive one I may take the leap. Dare I divert so quickly let’s get back to predictions.
The classic car market seems to follow the inverse of the stocks and the real estate markets. When those climb the investors’ side of the collector car markets seems to diminish. Of course, these guys are always looking the strongest ROI (Return on Investment) so when opportunities in dirt and stocks fall classic cars prices typically increase then the car market seems to flood with “non-car” people looking for quick returns. This was particularly true with the exotic car offerings but of course that doesn’t really matter to me since they are out of my league anyway. Our little British Cars just seem to get pulled up and down. It seems most investors are now leaving the classic car market. So it is generally comprised of classic car lovers once again and prices begin to cool a bit. Of course some car values will continue where demand is strong. This seems to be occurring in some of the 70s, 80s and 90s and even younger versions. This might be the Gen-Xers and younger Boomers with some disposable income.
The real changes are occurring with the older specimens like their older owners. It seems we early and mid-Baby Boomers are aging out and sadly must liquidate our treasures and no longer acquire another one. This is creating a surplus of 40s and 50s cars and as a result the market and prices for these cars are falling. Now is a great time to buy these treasures (if you love them) but probably for keeping not re-selling. If you have a 60s or 70s car most are predicting they will continue to as least track with inflation maybe better depending on the vehicle and its condition. The LBC cars in general are lagging a bit behind however. I am sure you have heard the term “condition is everything”. Well this is becoming particularly true with classic cars. The price gaps between project and restored specimens are getting much wider. Fewer people in this market want a project car, they are generally looking for a quality driver or show car. I am beginning to realize this as I consider my mortality and remaining productive years. Undertaking a major restoration that will require several years to complete could consume valuable time that could be spent sitting behind the wheel driving and enjoying a car that was previously restored by someone else and frankly can probably be acquired at 50% of the actual restoration costs. A few of us however just enjoy the process of restoring one or maybe recreating a better car than the factories built. This second approach can add a great deal more drivability without sacrificing the classic appearance. If it’s your desire to actually use the car for extended travel or perhaps daily use you may want to consider this methodology. You don’t have to go overboard just improve on the original mechanicals a bit. Putting a V6 with a 5 speed in an MGB for example and maybe throw in some air conditioning could modernize this car into a really reliable highway user. For example many MGA owners are replacing the 1500/1600cc Austin engines with upgraded MGB 1800cc engines mated to a Ford Sierra 9 5 speeds (works in a MGB as well). This can make all the difference in driving without sacrificing any physical appearances. Now you have a highway drivable car. Since many of these vintage cars already have non-matching number mechanicals anyway this could create a bonus that could actually improve the resale.
Speaking of resale was that really a consideration when you bought your classic? Not being an investor I never purchased a classic car with that in mind. I bought it because I wanted it. It would be nice if I didn’t lose my shirt but I put a lot of stock in ROFF (Return on the Fun Factor). If I can get a few years’ pleasure or utility out of a classic vehicle I consider it cost avoidance. That’s money I didn’t spend for a new car which always seems to depreciate thousands a year. Plus if you consider every mile you drive your classic, as miles not put on your modern vehicle you are extending its life and further deferring its replacement. When you factor in these elements the actual cost of classic car ownership becomes much more attractive.
In conclusion, predictions for the 2020 classic car market may not be as worrisome as we initially thought. If you always wanted a 40s or 50s something now maybe it’s time to go for it. You can stretch your buying dollar further than you could imagine a few years ago. I know my 1953 MGTD has fallen several thousand dollars without any real deterioration in condition and should you want one there are still plenty of them in the marketplace looking for new owners. Now may be the time for you to go out and make some lemonade from all of this and get that car you always dreamed about for “pennies on the dollar”, now that’s rationalization for you!
